Monthly Archives: December 2013

Is man-made global warming causing more hurricanes?

There is a popular perception that the number and intensity of hurricanes, typhoons and other tropical storms is increasing as a result of man-made global warming. This has led many people to believe that our fossil fuel usage is to blame for the horrific tragedies associated with recent tropical cyclones such as Hurricane Katrina (2005), Cyclone Nargis (2008), Hurricane Sandy (2012) and Typhoon Haiyan (2013).

However, these perceptions are not matched by the data. In this essay, we will briefly review what is actually known about hurricane trends.

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Word count: 6270

Summary: “Urbanization bias” – Papers 1-3

In this essay, we summarise the results of our three “Urbanization bias” papers, which we have submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.

Urban areas are known to be warmer than rural areas. This is known as the “urban heat island” effect.

This is a problem for analysing global temperature trends, because the widespread urbanization since the 19th century has introduced an artificial warming “urbanization bias” into many of the weather station records around the world. As a result, much of the “unusual global warming since the Industrial Revolution” which has been reported is just an artefact of urbanization bias.

Several groups have claimed that urbanization bias has already been taken into account in the global temperature estimates, and that they’re sure the unusual global warming is due to man-made global warming. However, in our three papers, we show that those claims are invalid.

Urbanization bias has seriously biased the current global temperature trend estimates. When we properly account for this bias, it turns out that it was probably just as warm in the 1930s and 1940s!

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Word count: 16183