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# Global Warming Solved

Climate Change Research by Connolly Scientific Research Group

## Sitemaps

- [XML Sitemap](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/sitemap.xml): Contains all public & indexable URLs for this website.

## Posts

- [Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/03/05/comparing-the-current-and-early-20th-century-warm-periods-in-china/) - This essay was originally written as a guest post for the Watts Up With That blog, which was published on 13th June, 2018. It is a summary of the findings of our 2018 “Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China” paper.
- [Major problems identified in the data adjustments applied to a widely used global temperature dataset](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2022/02/22/major-problems-identified-in-the-data-adjustments-applied-to-a-widely-used-global-temperature-dataset/) - Press release for our latest scientific article, "Evaluation of the Homogenization Adjustments Applied to European Temperature Records in the Global Historical Climatology Network Dataset", which was recently published in the scientific journal, Atmosphere.
- [Open letter: A recent Climate Feedback “fact-check” article makes multiple false and misleading claims about a new study and newspaper coverage of it](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/09/10/open-letter-a-recent-climate-feedback-fact-check-article-makes-multiple-false-and-misleading-claims-about-a-new-study-and-newspaper-coverage-of-it/) - Dear Drs. Vincent and Forrester, We are writing this open letter to you because it has recently come to our attention that your Climate Feedback website has published an article making multiple false or misleading claims about an Epoch Times newspaper article (by Alex Newman) that reported on a new peer-reviewed paper we co-authored. Your
- [How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/08/06/how-much-has-the-sun-influenced-northern-hemisphere-temperature-trends-an-ongoing-debate/) - Press release for our recent, "How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate" paper: A diverse expert panel of global scientists finds blaming climate change mostly on greenhouse gas emissions was premature. Their findings contradict the UN IPCC’s conclusion, which the study shows, is grounded in narrow and incomplete data about the Sun’s total solar irradiance.
- [95% of scientists, including us, agree that the climate is changing](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/03/09/95-of-scientists-including-us-agree-that-the-climate-is-changing/) - It is widely believed that “90-95% of scientists agree on climate change”. This is technically true if you define “agree on climate change” to mean “agree that the climate is changing”. We would be included in that 90-95% of scientists. Indeed, the very subject of this website is about climate change. However, many people mistakenly assume that 90-95% of scientists agree that recent climate change is “mostly human-caused”. The reality is that there is a wide range of views among the scientific community about the causes of recent climate change. Many scientists agree with that view, but many do not! In this post, we explain how this mistaken idea became embedded in the public conscience, and what is known about the true views of the scientific community on climate change.
- [Paradoxes of Oreskes & Conway’s “Merchants of Doubt” conspiracy theory](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/03/07/paradoxes-of-oreskes-conways-merchants-of-doubt-conspiracy-theory/) - In this post, we look at the popular “Merchants of Doubt” conspiracy theory promoted by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway in their 2010 book. They claim to have proven, “how a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming”. Oreskes & Conway’s conspiracy theory is remarkably popular among those trying to dismiss anybody who disagrees with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s statements on climate change. The book is even cited favourably in academic publications. However, as we discuss in this post, it is remarkably illogical and inconsistent and doesn’t stand up to critical scrutiny.
- [Summary: "Global temperature changes of the last millennium"](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/13/summary-global-temperature-changes-of-the-last-millennium/) - In this essay, we summarise the results of our "Global temperature changes of the last millennium" paper, which we have submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal. We reviewed the various studies which have attempted to estimate how global temperatures have changed over the last 1000 years, by using tree rings, lake sediments and ice cores, and other "temperature proxies". All of these studies have identified at least three climatic periods - a warm "Medieval Warm Period" (roughly 800-1200 A.D.), a cold "Little Ice Age" (roughly 1500-1850 A.D.) and a warm "Current Warm Period" (roughly 1900 A.D. on). There has been a lot of controversy over how temperatures in the Medieval Warm Period compared to present temperatures. Some studies claim that temperatures in the Current Warm Period are much warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period because of man-made global warming, whereas other studies find that global temperatures in the Medieval Warm Period were just as warm as in the Current Warm Period. This is an important issue for the global warming debate, because if the Medieval Warm Period was comparable to the Current Warm Period, this would suggest that much of the recent global warming has nothing to do with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. After all, the Medieval Warm Period pre-dates the Industrial Revolution. In our paper, we discuss different ways in which this issue could be resolved.
- [What does the IPCC say?](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/13/what-does-the-ipcc-say/) - The reports of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (or IPCC, for short) are widely assumed to represent the scientific consensus of thousands of top climate scientists on man-made global warming. The reports claim that man-made global warming is real, serious and will become more serious during the 21st century if nothing is done to slow down CO2 emissions. Therefore, it is assumed that these claims represent the views of all the top experts involved in the writing of the IPCC reports. However, in this essay, we find that most of the IPCC scientists are never asked for their views on those claims, and that several IPCC scientists openly disagree with them.
- [Is the Arctic melting?](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/13/is-the-arctic-melting/) - The Arctic is often described as being the "canary in the coal mine" of man-made global warming, i.e., it will be the first place we will see its effects. So, the fact that there has been a fairly steady decline in Arctic sea ice "since records began" has led many people to think that we are seeing unusual global warming, and that the only explanation must be man-made global warming. However, the problem is that the records only began in 1978, i.e., just after a period of several decades of cooling in the Arctic had ended. In this essay, we will discuss why the recent sea ice decline seems to be just part of the natural variability of the Arctic.
- [Summary: “The physics of the Earth’s atmosphere” Papers 1-3](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/19/summary-the-physics-of-the-earths-atmosphere-papers-1-3/) - In this essay, we summarise the results of our three "Physics of the Earth's atmosphere" papers, which we have submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal. For these papers we carried out new laboratory experiments to measure the mechanisms by which energy is transmitted throughout the atmosphere. We also analysed the distribution of energy throughout the atmosphere, using data from more than 13 million weather balloons. Our experimental results show that the temperature distribution in the atmosphere is completely independent of greenhouse gas concentrations. This directly contradicts the greenhouse effect theory, which predicts that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations should cause the lower atmosphere to heat up ("global warming"). Our results also provide important new insights into why the jet streams exist, why tropical cyclones form, and how to predict the weather. In addition, they suggest a new mechanism for the formation of ozone in the ozone layer, which implies that the expansion and contraction of the ozone layer is much quicker than had previously been thought.
- [What is happening to sea levels?](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/21/what-is-happening-to-sea-levels/) - There is a popular perception that man-made global warming is causing sea levels to rise dramatically. However, while some computer models have made fairly dramatic predictions, and Hollywood has exaggerated these into completely implausible scenarios to make entertaining science fiction, the actual experimental data fails to show anything dramatic. Instead, it suggests a sea level rise of at most a few inches per century. But, even those modest estimates are likely to be too large, as they neglect a number of serious biases in the data. In this essay, we analyse the actual data.
- [Is there a scientific consensus on global warming?](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/27/is-there-a-scientific-consensus-on-global-warming/) - There is a popular perception that climate scientists are in almost unanimous agreement that increasing CO2 concentrations are causing dangerous man-made global warming, and that we need to urgently reduce our "carbon footprint". However, while there are many prominent climate scientists who believe this, there is actually a wide range of opinions on man-made global warming amongst the scientific community. Some scientists believe there has been man-made global warming, but that the media descriptions are seriously exaggerated, and that it isn't an urgent issue. Other scientists believe that global warming is probably due to natural climate variability. In this essay, we give examples of some of the different views on man-made global warming of prominent climate researchers.
- [Summary: “Has poor station quality biased U.S. temperature trend estimates?”](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/29/summary-has-poor-station-quality-biased-u-s-temperature-trend-estimates/) - In this essay, we summarise the results of our "Has poor station quality biased U.S. temperature trend estimates?" paper, which we have submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal. The recent Surface Stations project has revealed that about 70% of the U.S. stations used for studying temperature trends are currently located near artificial heating sources, e.g., concrete surfaces, air conditioning units, parking lots. We found that this poor station quality has increased the mean temperature trends of the raw records by about half. It has previously been claimed that these biases have been removed by a series of data adjustments carried out by the National Climatic Data Center on these station records. However, we found that these adjustments to be inappropriate. The adjustments spread the biases uniformly amongst the stations, instead of removing them. It appears that poor siting has led to an overestimation of U.S. temperature trends. It is likely that similar siting problems exist for the rest of the world. This means that the amount of "global warming" which is thought to have occurred since the 19th century has probably been overestimated.
- [Summary: "Urbanization bias" - Papers 1-3](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/12/05/summary-urbanization-bias-papers-1-3/) - In this essay, we summarise the results of our three “Urbanization bias” papers, which we have submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal. Urban areas are known to be warmer than rural areas. This is known as the "urban heat island" effect. This is a problem for analysing global temperature trends, because the widespread urbanization since the 19th century has introduced an artificial warming "urbanization bias" into many of the weather station records around the world. As a result, much of the "unusual global warming since the Industrial Revolution" which has been reported is just an artefact of urbanization bias. Several groups have claimed that urbanization bias has already been taken into account in the global temperature estimates, and that they're sure the unusual global warming is due to man-made global warming. However, in our three papers, we show that those claims are invalid. Urbanization bias has seriously biased the current global temperature trend estimates. When we properly account for this bias, it turns out that it was probably just as warm in the 1930s and 1940s!
- [Is man-made global warming causing more hurricanes?](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/12/11/is-man-made-global-warming-causing-more-hurricanes/) - There is a popular perception that the number and intensity of hurricanes, typhoons and other tropical storms is increasing as a result of man-made global warming. This has led many people to believe that our fossil fuel usage is to blame for the horrific tragedies associated with recent tropical cyclones such as Hurricane Katrina (2005), Cyclone Nargis (2008), Hurricane Sandy (2012) and Typhoon Haiyan (2013). However, these perceptions are not matched by the data. In this essay, we will briefly review what is actually known about hurricane trends.
- [Progress report from the Global Warming Solved team](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2017/05/31/progress-report-global-warming-solved-team/) - We haven’t had a new post since 2014, but while the blog hasn’t been very active, we have been very busy continuing our climate research. So, in case anyone is wondering how our work is going, here's a short progress report of what we've been doing since 2014.
- [What do we know about Arctic sea ice trends?](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/03/04/what-do-we-know-about-arctic-sea-ice-trends/) - This essay was originally written as an invited guest post for Dr. Judith Curry's "Climate Etc." blog. A slightly abridged version was published there on 16th August 2017. In this essay we summarise the findings of our 2017 "Re-calibration of Arctic sea ice extent datasets using Arctic surface air temperature records" paper.
- [There’s no such thing as clean energy](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/03/05/theres-no-such-thing-as-clean-energy/) - The press release for our 2020 "Energy and Climate Policy—An Evaluation of Global Climate Change Expenditure 2011–2018" paper, in which we investigate the pros and cons of renewable energy sources.
- [Balloons in the Air: Understanding weather and climate](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/03/10/balloons-in-the-air-understanding-weather-and-climate/) - In this post we briefly summarise some of the progress we have made in our atmospheric physics research (based on the analysis of more than 20 million publicly available weather balloon soundings) since our 2014 papers.
- [How the UN’s climate change panel created a “scientific consensus” on global warming](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/03/10/how-the-uns-climate-change-panel-created-a-scientific-consensus-on-global-warming/) - In this post, we review how the UN's highly influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that climate change since the 1950s is "mostly human-caused". We argue that this conclusion was premature and scientifically unjustified. This essay was originally published on Medium.com on 23rd September, 2019.
- [Evaluating the human-caused and natural contributions to recent global warming](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/03/10/evaluating-the-human-caused-and-natural-contributions-to-recent-global-warming/) - In this post, we briefly summarise some of the main findings of our 2015 paper with Dr. Willie Soon, "Re-evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th century", that was published in the journal, Earth-Science Reviews. This summary is adapted from a similar post from 2019 on the CERES-science website.
- [How much global warming should we expect under "business-as-usual" policies?](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/04/15/how-much-global-warming-should-we-expect-under-business-as-usual-policies/) - In this post, we summarise the key findings of our 2020 paper "How much human-caused global warming should we expect with business-as-usual (BAU) climate policies? A semi-empirical assessment" published in the scientific peer-reviewed journal, Energies.
- [Current climate models get snow cover trends wrong for all four seasons](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2021/04/20/current-climate-models-get-snow-cover-trends-wrong-for-all-four-seasons/) - Imelda and Michael in downtown Boston (Massachusetts, USA) during a visit we made in February 2015 to northeast USA to discuss our research with other scientists. According to current climate models the heavy snowstorms that occurred at the time (and which took several months to fully melt) should not have been occurring in 2015. In this post, we summarise the main findings of our 2019 peer-reviewed paper, “Northern hemisphere snow-cover trends (1967-2018): A comparison between climate models and observations” that was published in the scientific journal, Geosciences. We show that the current climate models are completely unable to explain actual trends in snow cover for all four seasons.

## Pages

- [Dr. Michael Connolly](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/dr-michael-connolly/) - Academic qualifications B.Sc. (Hons.) in Chemistry with minor in Mathematics (University College Dublin, Ireland, 1971) H.D.E. (University College Dublin, Ireland, 1972) M.Sc. in Catalysis (Lakehead University, ON, Canada, 1974) D.E.E. in Electronic Engineering (University College Dublin, Ireland, 1980) Ph.D. in Spectroscopy (Trinity College Dublin, Ireland, 1989) Experience Academic Experience Lecturer and tutor at third level
- [Dr. Ronan Connolly](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/dr-ronan-connolly/) - Contents [hide] Academic qualifications Experience Other websites Follow me on social media Peer-reviewed publications Climate science and environmental science COVID-19 Polymer physics Non peer-reviewed publications COVID-19 Open Peer Review Journal articles Other climate science and environmental science articles A bit about me Academic qualifications B.Sc. (Hons.) in Chemistry with minor in Mathematics (University College Dublin,
- [Publications](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/publications/) - Peer-reviewed publications Ronan Connolly, Willie Soon, Michael Connolly, Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco, Ana G. Elias, Gregory W. Henry, Nicola Scafetta, and Víctor M. Velasco Herrera (2024). Multiple New or Updated Satellite Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Composites (1978–2023). The Astrophysical Journal, 975 (1), 102, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad7794. (Open access). Michael Connolly, Orla Dingley, Ronan Connolly, Willie Soon (2024). "Comparing different tropopause
- [Wind farms](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/windfarm/) - Below is an independent assessment we carried out in January 2014 on a proposed 32 turbine wind farm to be built on the lands surrounding our Offaly research farm.
- [Dr. Imelda Connolly](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/dr-imelda-connolly/) - Academic qualifications A.M.I. Mont. Dip & Sp. Ed. Dip, Maria Assumpta Training College A. Mus. VCM, Victoria College of Music, London Adv. Dip. Ed. (Special Needs in Education), Open University Adv. Dip. Ed. (Child Development), Open University M.A. (Education), Open University Ph. D. (Computer Mediated Communication), National College of Ireland M.A. (Ethnomusicology), University of Sheffield
- [Start Here](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/start-here/) - About this website (updated May 2021) When we first launched this website in 2014, our main goal was to summarise for a general audience our key scientific findings that we had reached after more than five years of careful and systematic scientific research into the subject of climate change. All of this research was unfunded
- [About Us](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/about-us/) - Connolly Scientific Research Group is a family-run independent research group based in Ireland. Dr. Ronan Connolly Click here for more information on Dr. Ronan Connolly Dr. Michael Connolly Click here for more information on Dr. Michael Connolly Dr. Imelda Connolly Click here for more information on Dr. Imelda Connolly Contact us You can contact us
- [Start Here (legacy page from 2014)](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/start-here-2014/) - Update (2021) In 2009, we began systematically investigating the challenging subject of climate change in detail. As environmentalists and scientists, we felt it was important for us to have a proper understanding of this subject, especially given how frequently our friends, family and colleagues would ask us about our thoughts on it. Our initial research
- [Links](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/links/) - Last updated: September 2014 There are currently hundreds of blogs that discuss climate science, and in particular man-made global warming theory. Unfortunately, a side-effect of the nature of blogging is that many of the people who feel passionate enough to blog about a topic, happen to have very strong opinions on that topic. This means

## Categories

- [Consensus](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/consensus/)
- [Cyclones](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/cyclones/)
- [Extreme weather](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/extreme-weather/)
- [Greenhouse effect](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/greenhouse-effect/)
- [Ice trends](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/ice-trends/)
- [IPCC](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/ipcc/)
- [Our papers](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/our-papers/)
- [Sea levels](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/sea-levels/)
- [Temperature proxies](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/temperature-proxies/)
- [Temperature records](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/temperature-records/)
- [energy policies](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/energy-policies/)
- [Climate policies](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/climate-policies/)
- [Solar variability](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/solar-variability/)
- [Conspiracy theories](https://globalwarmingsolved.com/category/conspiracy-theories/)